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Central American Immigrants in the United States

Given the close cultural, geographic, and commercial relationship between the United States and Central American countries, migration to the United States and within the region has been a long-term phenomenon. Persistent economic and political challenges in Central America have been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, economic and political turmoil, and increasingly extreme weather, prompting more Central Americans to migrate to the United States.
Much of the recent migration has been irregular. During fiscal year 2020, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) detected the presence of citizens of major Central American migrant-sending countries, including El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua, at the U.S.-Mexico border on a total of 109,100 occasions. However, this number saw a notable increase in fiscal year 2022, reaching approximately 705,500 encounters. In the first six months of fiscal year 2023, there were approximately 287,300 encounters at the border with these citizens. Between October 2019 and March 2023, citizens of these four countries accounted for nearly a third of the 5.8 million encounters with migrants at the southern border.
The Biden administration has responded to this migration with a combination of strict and humanitarian approaches. On the one hand, a new rule prohibits many non-Mexican migrants who arrive irregularly at the southern border of the United States from requesting asylum unless they have previously applied in at least one of the countries they passed through on their route and have been denied. On the other hand, the administration has also funneled billions of dollars in private investment, as well as government aid and assistance, to Central American countries; The U.S. government has expanded the Central American Minors (CAM) Program to offer refugee status and parole to some Guatemalans, Hondurans, and Salvadorans under the age of 21 with parents in the United States; expanded refugee resettlement; and created new parole processes for family reunification for individuals from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, as well as Colombia. Additionally, the U.S. government will open Regional Processing Centers, initially in Guatemala and Colombia, to assess the eligibility of individuals in the region for humanitarian protection or other legal avenues, in an attempt to prevent chaotic arrivals at the border and reduce human trafficking. The new arrivals join the estimated 3.8 million Central American immigrants already residing in the United States as of 2021, representing 8 percent of the 45.3 million total immigrants (see Figure 1). The Central American immigrant population in the United States has grown more than tenfold since 1980 and by 25 percent since 2010.
Immigration from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras has been the largest contributor to the growth of the Central American-born population in the United States since 1980. In 2021, approximately 86 percent of Central Americans in the United States were born in one of these three countries (see Table 1). The groups that have grown the fastest since 2010 are Hondurans (whose number increased by 47 percent between 2010 and 2021), Guatemalans (33 percent), and Salvadorans (17 percent).


Approximately one-third of Central American immigrants are naturalized U.S. citizens, and more than two-thirds of those who obtained lawful permanent resident (LPR) status (also known as a green card) in 2021 did so through family reunification pathways. Central American immigrants generally have lower educational outcomes than the general immigrant population or the U.S.-born population, and two-thirds report limited English proficiency. However, they have higher rates of labor force participation than other foreign-born populations or the U.S.-born population.
Globally, the United States is the top destination for Central American migrants, according to 2020 estimates from the United Nations Population Division, and the top destination for migrants from all Central American countries except Nicaraguans, whose top destination was Costa Rica. Approximately 15 percent (741,000) of all Central American migrants settled in other Latin American countries, with a common destination being Mexico. Outside of Latin America, Spain and Canada have a notable presence of Central American migrants (3 percent and 2 percent, respectively).
Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau (the most recent 2021 American Community Survey [ACS] and combined 2017-21 ACS data), the Department of Homeland Security’s Bureau of Immigration Statistics, the World Bank, and the Migration Policy Institute (MPI), this Focus provides information on the Central American immigrant population in the United States, focusing on its size, geographic distribution, and socioeconomic characteristics.

Latin America and the Caribbean: Overview

Latin America and the Caribbean is a region full of opportunities, with endless stories of strength and creativity, a region that does not stop, that transforms itself to face adversity. The World Bank is working with governments, the private sector, and civil society on education, inclusion, and climate resilience to end poverty on a livable planet.
The region has made slow but steady progress in overcoming imbalances brought on by the pandemic, including rising inflation pressures, global economic uncertainty, and rising debt; poverty and employment have even returned to pre-pandemic levels.
Despite fully recovering the GDP lost after the pandemic shock, economic growth is again lagging behind all other regions of the world. Regional average growth for 2024 is projected at 1.9 percent.
Poverty is projected to stand at 24.7 percent, down from 29.7 percent at the height of the pandemic. And inequality is expected to decline to a Gini coefficient of 49.9 percent, still high by World Bank standards.
Most countries, with a couple of exceptions, will meet their inflation targets in 2024, while the other major economies in the region would do so in 2025.


Overall, employment has returned to 2019 levels, including for women, but real wages remain stagnant and often below 2019 levels. Less-educated workers and older adults are the furthest behind in the recovery, while informality has remained largely stable since 2019.
To curb the advance of inflation and improve productivity and employment, the region needs to become more competitive. Competition can drive domestic manufacturers to adopt new products and technologies, and improve the productivity of firms. Global market integration has helped create more competitive environments, facilitating the diffusion and adoption of efficiency-enhancing innovations. At the same time, competing in dynamic and demanding domestic markets is the best way for firms to prepare to export.
In the educational field, losses caused by the pandemic have significantly affected learning levels, leaving the region in its worst crisis in the last 100 years. According to the latest PISA results, three out of four 15-year-olds are below the basic level of proficiency in mathematics and one in two is below the basic level in reading proficiency. On average, 15-year-old students in the region are five years behind the average student in OECD countries. Recovery is complex but possible, but must be addressed immediately.
Currently, the region is going through the worst migration crisis in its history. In addition to the traditional flows from Central America and Mexico to the United States, Venezuela and Haiti have experienced a significant outflow of people. More than 7.5 million Venezuelans have left their country since 2015, while 1.7 million Haitians are abroad, adding to the two million internally displaced people.
This situation is aggravated by the increasingly alarming effects of climate change, which have already caused significant economic and social losses. Hurricanes, floods and droughts are becoming more frequent and it is estimated that by 2050, 17 million people could be forced to leave their homes. Moreover, almost 5.8 million Latin Americans and Caribbeans could fall into extreme poverty by 2030, due to the impact of climate change, especially due to the lack of clean water, as well as greater exposure to excessive heat and flooding.
The pandemic accelerated digitalization, but the full potential of the region's wired infrastructure for growth, inclusion and service delivery remains untapped. Progress has been made in expanding basic mobile Internet connectivity, with a coverage gap of only 7% of the population, while two-thirds of households have fixed Internet connections. Still, poor service quality remains a major problem and disparities persist, with 74% of urban households having access to fixed Internet, but only 42% in rural areas.
The World Bank seeks to promote sustainable, resilient and inclusive growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, protect and improve human capital, foster greater productivity, help countries adapt to climate change and mitigate its impacts, taking advantage of new opportunities in green industries. In addition, it promotes an inclusive recovery by attracting investments, encouraging job creation and interacting with traditionally excluded groups, such as indigenous peoples, Afro-descendants and people with disabilities.
Supporting countries to achieve their development goals
The World Bank's analytical work and advisory services focus on supporting the Bank's policy design and operations in the different countries based on the region's data, services and core priorities. Topics include drivers of growth and productivity, the general economy and well-being, green fiscal policy, climate change, migration and human capital accumulation, among others.
Some recent contributions:
The report Learning Cannot Wait: Lessons for Latin America and the Caribbean from PISA 2022, carried out in conjunction with the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), analyzes how to address the learning crisis for adolescents in the region, and points out three immediate policy priorities to be taken to overcome one of the largest educational crises in the region in the last 100 years.
The ambitious Roadmap for Climate Action shows a series of country-level diagnoses to support climate and development objectives. Peru, Argentina, Brazil, Honduras, Colombia and the Dominican Republic have already published their Climate and Development Reports, while another eight countries are in the process, including the eastern Caribbean.
In the 2023 version of Health Panorama: Latin America and the Caribbean, we analyze the climate resilience of health systems in the countries of the region based on the essential components of health systems proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO).
The report Afro-descendant Inclusion in Education calls for recognizing and addressing the factors that cause and perpetuate exclusion, starting with discrimination in the classroom, one of the first ways that thousands of Afro-descendant children in the region face.
The My Education, Our Future campaign reiterates our commitment to strengthening and recovering basic learning such as reading and writing, mathematics and socio-emotional skills, in addition to ongoing teacher training.
The World Bank also advises countries on how to promote inclusion and gender equality:
In Mexico, policy measures were proposed to improve women’s participation in the workforce and reduce teenage pregnancies, especially among the most vulnerable groups.
In Chile, an integrated case management platform was launched to strengthen the governance of institutions that assist survivors of gender-based violence, facilitating timely responses and case monitoring to avoid delays and repeated reporting.
Partnerships
The World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank have launched an innovative partnership to drive better outcomes for people in Latin America and the Caribbean. The goal is to deepen collaboration to help combat poverty, create jobs, and address climate change. Initially, both organizations will work in three priority areas:
In the Amazon, they will combine their expertise to support countries in their transition to net-zero deforestation, helping their inhabitants, mostly indigenous peoples, improve their livelihoods while preserving the ecosystem, through innovative financial instruments.

In the Caribbean, collaboration will focus on supporting disaster risk management and climate crises, as well as developing financial protection mechanisms in the face of catastrophes.
Promoting digital development in the region, with a collaboration to boost digital infrastructure and connectivity to accelerate socioeconomic progress. Through the Connected Schools for All initiative, the World Bank and the IDB will develop plans to close the digital gap in education, ensuring that young people have the skills needed for the economy of the future.
In the fiscal year ending June 2023, the World Bank approved financing worth US$10 billion for Latin America and the Caribbean, including US$9.8 billion in IBRD commitments and US$181 million in IDA commitments. It also signed four reimbursable advisory services agreements with four countries for a total of US$2 million.
Some of the recent results supported by the World Bank include:
A US$500 million project will expand sustainability-linked financing and strengthen the private sector’s capacity to access carbon credit markets in Brazil. In collaboration with Banco do Brasil, one of the largest financial institutions in Latin America, the project will, for the first time, adopt a sustainability-linked lending approach to help the country meet its climate goals.

The Urban Resilience Project in Bolivia supports the cities of La Paz and Santa Cruz de la Sierra in reducing vulnerabilities to climate risks and improving the living conditions of more than 167,000 residents of the lowest-income areas in these municipalities.
Chile received the first World Bank loan globally to promote green hydrogen and support climate change mitigation efforts. The project seeks to encourage investment in green hydrogen projects in Chile, which will accelerate the country's green growth, its energy transition and support its commitment to carbon neutrality by 2050. The loan will be used to establish a fund for mixed public and private financing of green hydrogen projects and develop risk mitigation instruments that improve financing conditions. In addition, technical assistance will be provided to promote the development of this industry.
A historic financing for Colombia of USD 1 billion through the Green and Equitable Recovery Policy Financing Program aims to support policies that seek to reduce income and gender inequalities, as well as promote a path towards sustainable growth. This implies a greater emphasis on the protection of biodiversity and the consolidation of a low-carbon energy transition.

The USD 100 million financial assistance for Barbados focuses on the resilient development of green and blue economies. It includes a new law on water reuse, the adoption of a climate change and agriculture policy, the reduction of marine pollution, and the management of natural resources in the context of climate vulnerability. In addition, it focuses on the development of resilient and low-emission infrastructure through the application of new standards for agency-level disaster management plans, institutional reviews of national emergency management agencies, and the increase of renewable energy capacity and support for climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts.
Costa Rica has become the first country in Latin America and the Caribbean to receive payments from a World Bank trust fund to reduce carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). The Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) paid Costa Rica $16.4 million for reducing 3.28 million tons of carbon emissions during 2018 and 2019. The payment is the first of three under the country’s Emissions Reductions Payment Agreement with the FCPF. The country is on track to unlock up to $60 million for the reduction of up to 12 million tons of CO2 emissions by the end of 2025.
The World Bank responded quickly in November 2020 to the disaster caused by tropical storms Eta and Iota in Honduras and worked with the Government to assist in the rehabilitation and resilient reconstruction of the country. As a result, the project was able to finance the response costs for immediate emergency needs, benefiting approximately 300,000 people (around 60,000 families). In addition, 18 schools have been completed under resilient construction standards, benefiting approximately 117,000 people.
In Guyana, 48 percent of the World Bank’s $134.42 million project portfolio is in the education sector, where teaching practices have improved. 22 percent of teachers now meet the student-centered teaching practices standard, up from 7 percent previously. The 94 percent secondary school enrollment target in Regions 3 and 4 has been met with the completion of Westminster and Good Hope High Schools, which have added a total of 1,800 seats. In addition, textbooks have been distributed, with over 80 percent of students in grades 7-9 receiving a set of basic textbooks. In addition, 50 classrooms will receive tablets and 20 are being equipped as fully smart classrooms. At the post-secondary level, a technical and vocational education and training policy is being developed, and a new building for the University of Guyana’s faculty of health sciences is expected by 2025.
In Argentina, a US$400 million project will focus on expanding access to clean energy and promoting energy efficiency in vulnerable households and communities.
A new US$750 million loan strengthens resilience and reforms towards greater fiscal efficiency in Peru. It will also foster a more inclusive and competitive financial sector, and promote greener production. The new Partnership Framework with Peru supports three high-level outcomes focused on increasing access to quality economic opportunities for workers and entrepreneurs, improving access to quality public services, and promoting greater resilience to climate and economic shocks.
The Progestão Program in Brazil is available to all Brazilian states, regardless of their fiscal situation. It currently supports five states in three different regions of the country, for a total of US$220 million. This program seeks to help Brazilian states improve their long-term fiscal sustainability, implement administrative reforms, improve asset management and rationalize public spending.
In Ecuador, the project to Promote Access to Financing for Productive Purposes for Medium and Small Enterprises (MSMEs), which aims to promote economic reactivation and recovery from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, has enabled 5,000 MSMEs to access financing. 42% of them obtained a loan for the first time, and approximately 50% are owned or led by women.
The project to Strengthen the Social Protection and Inclusion System in Panama provided economic support to households in poverty affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. A total of 171,339 beneficiaries received conditional cash transfers from the Ministry of Social Development with financial support within the framework of the operation. 64% of the beneficiaries were women. This project also supported improvements in the income-generating capacity of the poor and vulnerable population, by strengthening the Territorial Networks and Social Cohesion Programs, which benefited 5,848 households.
In Haiti, the Sustainable Rural and Small Town Water and Sanitation Project Program contributed to increasing access to safe drinking water for more than 565,000 people in rural areas and small towns through the construction, rehabilitation and expansion of drinking water supply systems. It also provided access to improved sanitation facilities to more than 31,000 people. Through the World Bank's response to the August 2021 earthquake, DINEPA also benefited from the project by providing financial support for the rehabilitation of 12 piped water systems and 8 water points.



ACCORDING TO IA


1. Global and Regional Demographic Context

Countries worldwide, including the United States, are experiencing slower population growth due to declining birth rates. Without immigration, the U.S. population would likely shrink, similar to demographic crises seen in South Korea, Japan, and China. United Nations reports on global population sustainability suggest that countries with aging populations face economic challenges, including labor shortages and increased dependency ratios (more elderly individuals than working-age individuals). Immigration becomes vital for maintaining the labor force and supporting national economic structures.

2. Demographic Trends in Central and South America

General Overview

The combined population of Central and South America in 2023 is approximately 663 million, with an average annual growth rate of about 0.9%. Fertility rates have fallen from an average of 5.9 children per woman in the 1950s to below 2.1 in most countries today. This decline is driven by increased urbanization, educational opportunities, improved access to contraception, and greater workforce participation among women.

Here is a country-by-country breakdown of demographic data and trends:


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Central America

1. Guatemala

Population: 19 million

Birth Rate: 2.5 children per woman

Annual Population Growth: 1.8%

Guatemala has the highest population growth rate in Central America, though emigration rates remain high due to poverty and limited access to basic services, contributing to significant out-migration primarily to the U.S.



2. El Salvador

Population: 6.5 million

Birth Rate: 1.9 children per woman

Annual Population Growth: 0.5%

With one of the region’s lowest birth rates, El Salvador's slow population growth and high emigration rates are driven by violence and economic instability. Remittances from Salvadorans abroad contribute significantly to the economy.



3. Honduras

Population: 10.2 million

Birth Rate: 2.2 children per woman

Annual Population Growth: 1.6%

Honduras maintains moderate growth but faces substantial emigration, especially toward the U.S. Political and economic challenges push many Hondurans to seek better opportunities abroad.



4. Costa Rica

Population: 5.3 million

Birth Rate: 1.4 children per woman

Annual Population Growth: 0.6%

Costa Rica’s low birth rate and stable immigration flows, primarily from Nicaragua, balance its population, though the country is beginning to age more rapidly.



5. Nicaragua

Population: 6.9 million

Birth Rate: 2.1 children per woman

Annual Population Growth: 1.4%

Nicaragua's population growth is offset by emigration due to political and economic instability. The country’s fertility rate remains at the replacement level but continues to decline.



6. Panama

Population: 4.5 million

Birth Rate: 1.7 children per woman

Annual Population Growth: 1.1%

Panama’s low birth rate is countered by consistent immigration, especially from neighboring countries and the Caribbean, due to its strong economic opportunities.





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South America

1. Brazil

Population: 216 million

Birth Rate: 1.6 children per woman

Annual Population Growth: 0.7%

Brazil’s low birth rate and rapidly aging population present challenges, especially in social welfare and pension systems. Economic stagnation has also led to emigration in recent years.



2. Argentina

Population: 46 million

Birth Rate: 1.5 children per woman

Annual Population Growth: 0.9%

Argentina faces low birth rates and economic instability, leading to both emigration and decreased population growth. Immigration from neighboring countries helps mitigate these effects slightly.



3. Chile

Population: 19 million

Birth Rate: 1.5 children per woman

Annual Population Growth: 0.8%

Chile’s rapidly aging population and low birth rate resemble trends seen in developed countries. The country depends on immigration to sustain its workforce.



4. Colombia

Population: 53 million

Birth Rate: 1.8 children per woman

Annual Population Growth: 1.2%

Colombia has benefited from significant immigration from Venezuela, stabilizing population growth despite a declining birth rate.



5. Peru

Population: 34 million

Birth Rate: 2.0 children per woman

Annual Population Growth: 1.0%

Peru’s birth rate is near replacement level, though it continues to decline due to improved education and economic opportunities for women.



6. Ecuador

Population: 18 million

Birth Rate: 2.1 children per woman

Annual Population Growth: 1.3%

Ecuador’s birth rate remains stable, but emigration to the U.S. and Spain has impacted population growth.



7. Venezuela

Population: 28 million

Birth Rate: 2.3 children per woman

Annual Population Growth: -0.2% (population decrease)

Due to economic and political crises, Venezuela has a high out-migration rate, resulting in a net population decline despite a moderately high birth rate.



8. Bolivia

Population: 12 million

Birth Rate: 2.5 children per woman

Annual Population Growth: 1.4%

Bolivia’s population growth remains high due to its relatively high birth rate, though rural-to-urban migration is increasing rapidly.



9. Uruguay

Population: 3.5 million

Birth Rate: 1.4 children per woman

Annual Population Growth: 0.3%

Uruguay has the region’s oldest population structure and low birth rate. It faces significant demographic aging, relying on immigration to offset this trend.



10. Paraguay

Population: 7.4 million

Birth Rate: 2.3 children per woman

Annual Population Growth: 1.5%

Paraguay maintains a steady growth rate, though birth rates are gradually decreasing due to urbanization and education.




3. Key Factors Influencing Population Decline

Urbanization and Modern Lifestyles: High costs of living in urban centers, combined with limited housing and resources, discourage larger families.

Women's Empowerment and Education: Women's increased access to education and workforce participation has led to delayed marriage and fewer children.

Emigration: Economic instability, political unrest, and crime drive many Central and South Americans to emigrate, primarily to the United States, resulting in lower net population growth.


4. Immigration as a Solution

Countries with low birth rates and aging populations, like the United States and many nations in Central and South America, benefit from immigration. For the U.S., immigration helps maintain a stable labor force, supports economic growth, and addresses aging-related challenges. In Central and South America, immigration from neighboring countries can alleviate workforce shortages and help maintain population levels, though policies supporting integration and social services are critical for sustainability.

5. Conclusion

The population trends in Central and South America highlight the urgent need for policies that address demographic challenges. Declining birth rates, combined with high emigration, may lead to labor shortages, economic contraction, and social security strain as the population ages. Immigration remains a vital tool for countries to offset these trends, support economic growth, and maintain demographic stability. Sustainable immigration policies, improved social services, and support for family planning are key strategies for these regions to navigate the evolving demographic landscape.

This comparative analysis underscores the importance of immigration in supporting both local and global population sustainability, offering a solution to mitigate population decline and its potential economic impacts

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